Author Topic: How to defeat Russians  (Read 310 times)

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Online Fraucha

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How to defeat Russians
« on: 08:51 04-Mar-2017 »

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Peace is the failure of the military to convince the government that it can and should kick its enemies ass.

Online sosednik

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Re: How to defeat Russians
« Reply #1 on: 20:45 05-Mar-2017 »
A.  This is a f*cking great video.
__________________________________________

B.  It tells a deep truth:  Russia is by far its own most dangerous enemy.  And unlike other enemies, who get tired, change direction, or take a break for a while ... Russia never stops attacking Russia.  The assault is relentless, and seemingly eternal.

My "score card" of the Putin regime:

Goal 1:  Integrate the Russian Federation into international organizations and structures, to increase Russian prestige and show that Russia is on a comparable level to the prosperous countries of the West.

Status:  Russian participation has been terminated, suspended or downgraded in some crucial organizations.

Goal 2:  Expand the Russian economy.

Status:  Real GDP is below that in 2008 (at the low point of the recession).  It's not expected to recover to the pre-recession peak until about 2021 (in other words, zero net growth over a 13-year period).  Russia's GDP is smaller than that of Brazil, Italy and Canada.  It is now almost inconceivable that Russia's GDP will catch up to that of a single US state, California, within the next 20 years ... even though California has only about one quarter of Russia's population.

Goal 3:  Reform the Russian economy.

Status:  There is almost no discernible progress in economic reform, but much reverse movement.  Russia lacks rule of law, so protection of property rights is based on relationship with (or better, sponsorship by) the new tsar.  More than half of Russia's economic output is estimated to be from businesses owned wholly or in majority by the Russian state.  In other words, Russia is sliding backwards into socialism.  Growth in non-petroleum sectors has been far too weak to relieve Russia of its status as a petro-state.

Goal 4:  Create a Russia-centered international trade regime to rival the EU.

Status:  By the time Putin launched his "Eurasian Economic Union," he was already at war with Ukraine.  Ukraine was supposed to be the keystone for the EEU:  aside from Russia, the largest population, food production, and industry.  Now, there is a hollowed-out EEU which Ukraine is very unlikely ever to join.  One of its biggest consequences, has been for prosperous Kazakhstan to be dragged downward by the economic instability of Russia.

Goal 5:  Reverse Russia's public health and demographic catastrophes.

Status:  Both life expectancy and birth rates have improved somewhat in recent years.  Nonetheless, men live longer in most of the world's countries (including some most of us probably regard as sh*tholes) than in Russia, and birth rate is far below that needed to sustain Russia's population.  By the most optimistic projections, Russia's population could grow modestly by 2050; by the most pessimistic, it could decline by half.  [Many European states also face population decline, but they are much more stable and prosperous, and have a greater potential to attract needed immigrant labor.]

Goal 6:  Increase Russia's economic and military independence.

Status:  Putin has freedom of action, in the sense that he has abandoned international law and structures.  However, Russian industry remains critically dependent on foreign technology, including Russia's core petroleum sector.  Russian growth requires foreign investment.  Some segments of Russia's arms production is presently limited or blocked by its dependence on Ukrainian industry, including Odessa shipyards to build ships for the Russian navy.

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Re: How to defeat Russians
« Reply #2 on: 23:36 05-Mar-2017 »
Great write up!  8)